By David Wilson, Fixed Income Advisor at Welford Capital

As of February 2, 2026, the market consensus has shifted significantly following the unexpected December inflation uptick to 3.4%. While the Bank of England (BoE) was previously expected to cut rates early this year, David Wilson of Welford Capital notes that a “hold” at 3.75% is now the most likely outcome for the February 5 meeting.

“The inflation data was a wake-up call for those expecting a rapid easing cycle,” says David Wilson. At Welford Capital, we are observing that while the downward trajectory for inflation remains intact, the BoE is exercising extreme caution. David Wilson suggests that fixed-income investors should now look toward the May and June meetings for the first meaningful cuts. “For our clients at Welford Capital, this delay in rate cuts actually extends the window to lock in high yields on Cash-Equivalent Funds and Short-Dated Money Market Instruments,” David Wilson explains.